Bitcoin briefly pierced the $90,000 ceiling late last week, only to slide back into the mid‑$80,000s as thin year‑end trading amplified ordinary moves into headline‑grabbing swings.
Traders watching screens over the holidays saw the original crypto spike above roughly $90,300 in Asian hours, according to market prints, before U.S. sessions erased much of the gain and left bitcoin trading around $87,000–$88,000. Ether and other large caps followed the same pattern: a short-lived pop — ether neared $3,000 at one point — then a retreat as liquidity thinned and participants stepped away for the holidays.
A market that breathes shallow at year‑end
What’s driving the wobble is familiar: thin order books, concentrated tax and book‑cleaning flows, and selective institutional participation. With many desks lightly staffed and large pools of capital waiting for clearer signals, modest sell programs can shove prices through intraday support faster than they can recover.
Linh Tran, senior market analyst at XS, summed up the mood succinctly: don’t expect fireworks in January. Tran told CoinDesk that Q1 2026 is more likely to resemble a period of stability and accumulation within a roughly $80,000–$100,000 band than the start of a new, sustained bull run. The reasons are straightforward — monetary policy still isn’t decisively accommodative, ETF flows remain selective, and the regulatory backdrop is still settling.
Quick swings, cautious positioning
Bloomberg’s market coverage captured the same micro‑drama: a fleeting push above $90,000 that evaporated once U.S. trading picked up. That kind of intraday volatility is typical when participation is low — occasional block trades, options expiries or rebalancings have outsized impact.
CoinDesk’s market roundups point to a related story on holder behavior. While some long‑term holders have sold sizable amounts during recent corrections, the 30‑day picture shows pockets of accumulation as buyers who entered earlier in the cycle hold on. Those opposing currents — distribution followed by selective accumulation — are part of why prices can feel directionless even when on‑chain metrics show structural growth in usage and institutional adoption.
Alternative tokens mirrored bitcoin’s hesitancy. XRP traded around $1.86, ether hovered just under $3,000 when it faded, and Solana, Cardano and others slipped amid low volumes. Large‑cap tokens are drifting as traders weigh whether year‑end flows are simply short‑term noise or the start of a more meaningful reset.
Macro context and why copper gets a mention
This isn’t only a crypto story. Global markets have been juggling a late‑cycle mix of factors: equities rallied into year‑end, then paused; commodities like copper saw a strong run, driven by a weaker dollar and supply concerns, marking one of copper’s biggest annual gains in years. The cross‑market currents matter because they shape risk appetite. When safe‑haven buying or commodity strength diverts attention, smaller, liquidity‑sensitive markets such as crypto can look particularly volatile.
Traders’ checklist for the first weeks of 2026
- Hold the mid‑$80,000s: many traders are watching whether bitcoin can sustain levels around the mid‑$80,000s as a tell for broader stability. If those levels give way in thin markets, a deeper, liquidity‑driven dip is possible.
- ETF flows and institutional demand: selective but meaningful. New products and institutional playbooks will keep influencing price action, but flows are neither broad nor guaranteed.
- Regulatory headlines: ongoing consolidation in rules and enforcement will keep pockets of capital cautious until more clarity emerges.
The current moment feels like an intermission: institutions have made progress on adoption, on‑chain activity has structural positives, yet the price mechanics remain vulnerable until liquidity and conviction return. For traders, that means managing position sizes and watching whether January’s calendars — when desks return and liquidity deepens — confirm the range talk or force a different narrative.
Markets that look quiet on Christmas Eve often tell us more than they seem to. They reveal where patience is being priced and where the next real move will need to find muscle. For now, bitcoin and its peers are trading like a market waiting for the new year to vote on confidence — and investors are holding their ballots.