SAN FRANCISCO — The city was sunny, the conference halls were full, and the banners were impossible to miss. J.P. Morgan’s annual healthcare confab felt this year like a comeback party in slow motion: enthusiasm in the air, but with a healthy dose of skepticism at the bar.
People showed up ready to meet. Not for splashy, market-moving buyouts — those were largely absent — but for conversations, term-sheets and pipeline deep dives. Longtime attendees described a different tempo than the headline-chasing years: lots of meetings, fewer blockbuster deals. That change in rhythm tells you something important about where biotech sits in 2026.
A rebound that looks like a dress rehearsal
All signs point to renewed capital trickling back into the sector. Late-stage deals and IPOs have returned with more discipline: most public debuts are now companies with drugs already in or beyond Phase 2. Venture dollars are again flowing, and where they land matters — investors are favoring fewer companies and writing bigger checks when they like what they see.
Still, optimism came with caveats. Several investors and executives warned this could be a fragile upswing. After a multi-year correction, the industry is trying to avoid the excesses of the last boom: hype-driven platforms and overpromised technologies that didn’t deliver. The mood at JPM was one of guarded hope — people want the rally to stick, but they’re watching for the familiar signs of a frothier era.
AI was omnipresent — in ads, panels and boardrooms
Walk the aisles and you couldn’t avoid the AI signage. From startups promising to compress drug discovery timelines to vendors pitching clinical scribes, artificial intelligence had a starring role. Hospitals and health systems are moving beyond pilot projects and deploying AI for administrative workflows, revenue capture and even some clinical decision support. That practical focus — revenue lift and efficiency — is what health systems are buying now.
The conversation wasn’t limited to healthcare-specific tools. Cross-industry AI developments are shaping expectations and tools for drugmakers and providers alike. For a sense of how the tech stacks powering these products are evolving, see Microsoft’s foray into text-to-image models and the broader trend of embedding multimodal AI into everyday workflows in recent reporting on MAI-Image-1 and Google’s efforts to stitch deep research into maps and productivity tools in Gemini Deep Research.
Regulators, China and the new equilibrium
The FDA’s recent leadership churn hung over many sessions. Former officials voiced concern about instability at the agency and urged clearer, more predictable guidance so sponsors can plan clinical programs without constant seat-of-the-pants changes. Investors polled during the week flagged regulatory unpredictability as a top risk to the sector — and for good reason: timing and clarity from regulators often determine whether a program is partnerable or not.
Another recurring theme was the fast rise of China’s biotech ecosystem. Some in the room framed it as a threat to U.S. dominance; others argued competition will force U.S. firms to be nimbler. Either way, global dynamics are reshaping deal strategies and where companies choose to run trials or seek partners.
Deals looked different — fewer megadeals, more discipline
Where once JPM week might have been a flashpoint for multibillion-dollar buyouts announced with fanfare, this year’s action was subtler. A flurry of well-capitalized private rounds and selective partnerships dominated headlines. Public markets, meanwhile, have generally rewarded companies that came to market with substantive clinical assets — signaling that investors have learned lessons from previous cycles.
But caution persists. Some analysts flagged that the rally in biotech ETFs and collective investor optimism could set the stage for new vulnerabilities: if expectations become untethered from data, even strong fundamentals can get punished. For now, the consensus seemed to be: discipline first, excitement second.
What people were actually doing: meetings and momentum
If JPM’s purpose has shifted, it’s toward relationship-building and deal crafting rather than headline-grabbing megadeals. Executives were in Manhattan and San Francisco hotel suites, hashing out collaborations, listening to scientists and trying to line up financing that reflects hard clinical milestones, not just a good story.
And in quieter moments between presentations, the city’s cooler weather and a stroll through a nearby park reminded many attendees of why they have stuck with the sector: the work still matters. That mix — serious science, cautious capital, and a lot of AI optimism — left the conference feeling less like a triumphant comeback and more like a sector taking a deliberate, if uneasy, step forward.
A VC put it bluntly on the last day: “We’re back to doing the job we used to do — actually picking winners instead of betting on buzz.”