San Francisco in January usually smells faintly of coffee and deal fatigue. This year it smells different: optimism. After a bruising stretch for biotech, executives and investors are arriving for the 44th J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference with war chests, time-sensitive agendas and, yes, sunscreen in case the weather keeps behaving.
The central tension arriving in town is familiar but sharper: how do large drugmakers replace the revenue that will evaporate as dozens of blockbusters lose patent protection over the next few years? The answer will determine which companies make big checks at the conference and which ones try to buy their way out of trouble.
Policy isn’t gone; it’s just quieter — for now
A flurry of late‑2025 agreements between the White House and several top drugmakers knocked the loudest political issues off the front pages, at least temporarily. But executives won’t be able to ignore policy chatter at JPM. Questions about Most Favored Nation–style pricing pushes, future tariffs and the FDA’s unpredictable swings will still color investor conversations. Those are not theoretical risks: recent months have shown regulators and policymakers can change the commercial calculus overnight.
That said, the mood among CEOs on the whole looks sunnier than the last couple of J.P. Morgans. With the most extreme policy headlines tamped down, management teams can refocus investor decks on pipelines, new formulations and strategic deals.
A huge patent cliff, and the M&A response
Analysts peg the upcoming loss‑of‑exclusivity exposure at roughly a quarter to a half trillion dollars over the next few years. That’s why Merck, Bristol Myers Squibb, Pfizer and others are either hunting for tuck‑ins or bidding for late‑stage assets.
Merck, for one, has defensive options that look promising: a subcutaneous version of Keytruda that should protect roughly 20–30% of U.S. sales, and pipeline work that includes assets from recent acquisitions. Industry chatter ahead of JPM included reports that Merck is in talks to buy Revolution Medicines — a reminder that big strategic moves could still come during the conference week.
Bristol Myers Squibb will be watched for how its ADEPT Alzheimer’s psychosis trial readouts and other late‑stage programs might offset its exposure. Investors will be listening for concrete timelines and how management thinks about commercial execution post‑2028.
Obesity drugs remain the industry’s magnet
If any single theme could dominate hallway talk, it’s GLP‑1s and their derivatives. Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have pushed the obesity-drug conversation from scientific journals into living rooms; both companies are rolling out—or preparing to roll out—oral versions that will expand reach and change prescribing dynamics.
Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy pill has just started reaching patients, and Lilly’s oral candidate orforglipron is widely expected to clear the FDA in the first half of the year. Those launches will prompt hard questions about pricing, direct‑to‑consumer tactics and how payers—Medicare among them—will handle coverage decisions that could come later in 2026.
Expectable fallout: big pharma players that were late to obesity are increasingly buying into the space. Pfizer’s recent acquisition of Metsera and other strategic moves are evidence that companies are willing to spend to stay relevant.
Biotech: fundraising and a newfound confidence
After frozen markets and caution in 2023 and 2024, many startups closed sizable rounds late last year. That capital influx is loosening the fundraising straitjacket and setting the stage for a busier M&A market. For many small companies, JPM is now about partnership conversations rather than desperate pitch meetings.
Founders arriving this year report fewer empty seats and more serious suitors. Some CEOs say they feel like the industry is turning a corner—while reminding investors that clinical and regulatory risk remain high.
What to watch on the ground
- Executive presentations that pivot from defensive policy positioning to product and pipeline clarity.
- Any surprise bids for late‑stage biotechs: bankers expect deal activity to pick up as buyers race to refill their pipelines.
- Detailed commercial plans for oral GLP‑1s and how companies will work with payers.
For listeners who prefer audio, industry podcasts are already unpacking the pre‑JPM narratives; formats and distribution keep evolving alongside the conference (podcasters and attendees are even tinkering with publishing tools and delivery). If you follow the week in audio, you might notice the same developments reflected across shows and interviews — some platforms have added enhancements recently to make those conversations easier to navigate, especially on mobile devices. See coverage of recent podcast feature updates in the industry tech space for context on how people consume JPM analysis (Apple Podcasts improvements).
And for the executives and analysts who will be live‑blogging, forecasting and closing deals between meetings, the MacBook remains the ubiquitous conference companion—if you’re packing one, many opt for a lightweight machine like the latest MacBook Air available on Amazon.
There’s no single narrative that will dominate every meeting this week. Instead, expect a mosaic: optimistic fundraises, aggressive bid strategies from big pharmas, cautious commentary about FDA and pricing risks, and lots of conversation about how obesity medicines will rewrite health‑care economics. If anything, JPM 2026 looks like the moment when the industry chooses how fast it wants to sprint toward that uncertain-but-lucrative horizon.