When Zohran Mamdani defeated expectations and won New York City’s mayoralty, a vivid narrative took hold: the rich would flee. Realtors in Westchester and Florida primed a counter‑marketing campaign premised on panic. What’s actually showing up on the ledger so far is the opposite — a burst of luxury transactions in Manhattan and a parallel spike in interest in Miami’s high‑end towers.
Sales, not stampedes
Data from brokerage Douglas Elliman and appraiser Miller Samuel shows the volume: signed contracts for Manhattan homes priced at $4 million or more climbed to 176 in November, up 25% from October’s 141. Olshan Realty flagged a busy Thanksgiving week — 17 contracts for properties over $4 million, beating its 10‑year average for that slice of the market.
“That idea that people would flee New York was overblown,” Donna Olshan told reporters, and brokers and appraisers who track deals say the recent numbers back her up. Jonathan Miller of Miller Samuel pointed out that sales, prices and rents have been rising through 2025; he called the panic narrative “anecdote masquerading as fact.”
There are immediate, practical reasons for the discrepancy between rhetoric and reality. Many buyers of high‑end Manhattan real estate are deeply tied to the city’s financial and cultural ecosystem: Wall Street payouts remain significant (and, by many accounts, unusually generous since 2024), corporate headquarters and elite services are concentrated here, and for millions a New York address still buys convenience and cachet.
Sunshine’s siren song, carefully considered
At the same time, South Florida is seeing renewed attention. Luxury developments along Miami’s so‑called Billionaire’s Beach report surging inquiries and some sales from New York buyers. Developers and marketing agents at projects like the Ritz‑Carlton Residences and the Perigon say interest from Manhattan has risen sharply — one project logged a 166% jump in inquiries from New Yorkers compared with the prior year — and salespeople describe buyers who were “on the fence” but who moved after the election.
Miami’s pitch is familiar: finished units, waterfront views, hotel‑level service and a tax environment many find appealing. But developers emphasize that much of the activity is second‑home buying or gradual relocation planning — not a single, unanimous flight. As one Miami marketer put it, it looks more like a “thoughtful exodus” for those who already own multiple properties than a mass evacuation.
Taxes, logistics and the limits of uprooting
Policy proposals from Mamdani’s campaign — including a proposed 2% city income‑tax surcharge on annual incomes above $1 million and stronger tenant protections like eviction limits and rent freezes — helped fuel the initial scare. But moving out of New York for tax reasons turns out to be harder and messier than a viral op‑ed: tax residency rules are strict, and auditors can — and do — pursue people who declare new domiciles but maintain de facto lives in the city.
That reality was a blunt incentive for many high earners to pause. For others, family ties, private‑school logistics, business commitments and the simple appeal of Manhattan’s cultural institutions made the calculus more complicated. The pandemic era offered a rehearsal: wealthy New Yorkers dispersed temporarily to second homes, yet the five boroughs gained tens of thousands of millionaires in the years after COVID’s first shocks.
Why the data matters (and why the story isn’t over)
Real estate agents love drama; markets love data. Right now, the data tilts toward continued demand for luxury Manhattan housing and heightened curiosity about Miami’s newest towers. But two caveats matter:
- Timing. Election outcomes and campaign promises are one thing; enacted policy, court challenges and economic shifts are another. Buyers and sellers are watching to see what actually changes.
- Composition. Much of the Miami interest appears to be second‑home or investment purchases, not immediate, permanent relocations. And some of the Manhattan deals reflect a market that tightened as inventory lagged demand — not a sudden surge of newcomers.
There’s also a human element that raw numbers can’t capture: buying a $10 million condo is often as much about lifestyle and service — spa access, private restaurants, discrete staff — as it is about tax planning. Developers in both cities market those comforts aggressively, and affluent buyers respond to certainty: finished product, reliable delivery timelines, and services that make transitions feel seamless.
No city is immune to policy risk, and the politics here will influence expectations. But for now, the much‑touted “Mamdani effect” looks less like an exodus and more like a rearrangement of preferences — New York still sells, and Miami is being actively shopped.
Whether those patterns harden into long‑term migration flows depends on the policies Mamdani pursues, the reactions of business leaders and the broader macroeconomy. For the moment, the luxury market is doing what luxury buyers often do: vote with their contracts, not their headlines.