Ask any broker who closed a deal in December and they’ll tell you the same thing: cash made a difference. Across Manhattan, 2025 finished with a market that felt steady to selective — not booming, but stubbornly resilient — and much of that resilience showed up in bank accounts rather than loan commitments.
A market of competing pictures
Different market trackers tell slightly different stories because they count different addresses, slices of product and time windows. Corcoran’s fourth-quarter snapshot reads upbeat: closings rose about 3% year‑over‑year to roughly 2,800 transactions and signed contracts extended a seven‑quarter run of gains. The firm also reported a 7% jump in median price to $1.18 million and a faster pace to deal-making, with average days on market down to about 108 days.
By contrast, Coldwell Banker Warburg’s numbers for Q4 showed a sharper seasonal slowdown — closed sales of roughly 2,467, down around 15% from a year earlier and about 32% from Q3 — even as median prices held near $1.15 million. Those gaps aren’t contradictions so much as different lenses: timing, neighborhood coverage and whether new‑development closings are included can shift the headline.
Either way, the theme was consistent: fewer, more decisive buyers. Inventory stayed historically lean in several segments, while new‑development supply slipped to near decade lows — a dynamic that helped keep pricing from collapsing even as transaction velocity cooled.
Why cash buyers mattered
The New York Times and brokers around the borough flagged an unmistakable pattern: an outsized share of Manhattan purchases last year closed with all‑cash. Wealthy buyers — domestic and international, private‑equity checks and long‑time local families — stepped in where mortgage financing was slower or more expensive.
Cash shortens the path to closing and removes a major contingency, and in a market where well‑priced listings were sparse, sellers rewarded certainty. That certainty mattered most at the upper end, which saw meaningful activity and helped lift overall sales volume even when middle‑market deal flow cooled.
Mortgage markets nudged the picture too. Coming off elevated rates, an easing or even the expectation of slightly lower borrowing costs encouraged some buyers who do need loans to re‑enter, helping bump activity in pockets. At the same time, economists and lenders continued to suggest mortgage rates would sit higher than the pre‑pandemic era, which leaves a premium on cash and on buyers who can close quickly.
The luxury divide and the "sorting" effect
Across reports, commentators described a sorting dynamic: standout, correctly priced homes — particularly those well staged and marketed — sold quickly. More marginal listings lingered. That split was especially pronounced in luxury tiers where a handful of big deals can sway averages.
With new sponsor inventory thin, buyers hunting for move‑in‑ready product often found themselves competing in the resale market, and that kept prices from sliding dramatically. It also meant that when ultra‑luxury outliers were absent from a quarter, price‑per‑square‑foot statistics could look softer even amid rising median prices.
What agents are doing differently
Brokers leaned hard on marketing precision and speed: sharper pricing, cleaner showings and a willingness to accept cash or bridge offers when sellers wanted certainty. Data and tooling played a bigger role as well — agents and investors are increasingly using richer market feeds and AI‑powered research to find small pricing advantages and speed up decision making. That trend mirrors developments across finance and search tools, including the recent rise of advanced, AI‑driven market research platforms that fold corporate earnings and sentiment into one view Google Finance’s Gemini Deep Search has been one of the bigger moves in that space. Similarly, buyer convenience is getting a tech boost: booking and scheduling systems with agentic features are shrinking friction for touring and closing appointments Google’s AI Mode added agentic booking features that point toward smoother client logistics.
What this means for spring 2026
Expect more of the same in early 2026: a market where quality inventory moves, weaker listings sit, and cash remains an advantage. If mortgage rates drop enough to broaden the buyer pool, transaction counts could accelerate beyond seasonal norms; if rates stay elevated, cash buyers and well‑priced resales will likely carry the market.
For sellers, the prescription is practical: price sharply, stage carefully, and be ready to transact with speed. For buyers, patience and preparedness — plus a clear financing plan — will be the edge. The city’s market isn’t broken; it’s being recalibrated. And as it reshapes, those with cash or low‑friction financing will keep the loudest voices at the bargaining table.
(Reporting synthesized from multiple market reports and broker updates for Q4 2025 and year‑end commentary.)