Nintendo has lifted its sales and profit outlook after its new Switch 2 console outperformed expectations in its first months on the market, a performance the company and investors say has been nothing short of historic — even as executives warn sustaining that pace will be challenging.
Sales, earnings and a bullish revision
In an earnings update for the quarter ended Sept. 30, Nintendo said it now expects to sell 19 million Switch 2 units in the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, up from an earlier forecast of 15 million. The company reported revenue of 527.2 billion yen ($3.7 billion) and operating profit of 102.9 billion yen for the quarter, both well ahead of market estimates.
Nintendo sold 4.54 million Switch 2 consoles during the quarter and has moved 10.36 million units since the device's June launch. The company noted that holiday-quarter demand historically outstrips the preceding period — in some past years by as much as double — which helps explain the company’s more optimistic production and sales planning.
Industry observers and investors responded decisively. Nintendo’s Tokyo-listed shares jumped as much as 10% on the news, marking the biggest one-day gain in months and underscoring how the Switch 2's early momentum has become a major driver of sentiment around the company.
Why Nintendo accelerated its plans
Several factors underlie the forecast bump. Strong hardware sell-through and a robust software slate for the new platform have combined to push unit and game revenue above earlier guidance. Nintendo said it sold 11.95 million Switch 2 game units during the quarter, with blockbuster releases such as Mario Kart World and Donkey Kong Bonanza among the best sellers. New entry Pokémon Legends: Z-A began shipping Oct. 16 and the company has been promoting bundle offers tied to the title.
The firm also raised its software projections: it now expects 48 million Switch 2 software sales by March 31 — up 3 million from its prior estimate — and increased its forecast for Switch-family game sales to 125 million for the fiscal year, from a previous 105 million.
Reports that Nintendo had asked suppliers to prepare as many as 25 million Switch 2 units by the end of March corroborate the sense that the company is accelerating production to meet holiday demand and avoid shortages.
Analysts hail the launch — with caveats
Analysts described the early results as impressive. Jefferies strategists called the momentum “historic,” noting Nintendo’s ability to ramp supply and maintain high sell-through rates. Toyo Securities’ Hideki Yasuda said selling more than 10 million units in the first half of the fiscal year was a “major surprise,” and suggested further upward revisions could follow if holiday demand holds.
Comparisons to prior console launches have reinforced the scale of the debut: IGN and others pointed out the Switch 2 reached 10 million units sold in roughly four months, eclipsing the early-sales trajectories of both the original Switch and rival consoles in their early windows.
Risks and realities: price, macro headwinds and sustaining the pipeline
Nintendo itself sounded a note of caution. President Shuntaro Furukawa has warned it will not be simple to maintain the torrid pace, pointing to the console’s relatively high price — the Switch 2 is the company’s most expensive hardware to date — and broader macroeconomic risks such as trade tensions and tariffs between the U.S. and China.
The company also significantly increased marketing spend ahead of and after the launch, disclosing advertising outlays of 64.6 billion yen in the quarter — roughly an 80% increase — a sign that Nintendo invested heavily to keep the console front-of-mind for consumers.
There are product and content risks as well. Nintendo’s long-term success with the Switch line has relied on a steady stream of major first-party titles; maintaining that cadence for the Switch 2 will be critical. The company pointed to a pipeline that includes later-year releases such as Kirby Air Riders and Metroid Prime 4: Beyond, and to new Pokémon content, but investors will be watching how those games translate to sustained hardware and software sales.
What this means for the market
For Nintendo, the improved outlook translates into higher revenue and profit guidance for the year and a validation of the Switch 2 as the company’s next long-term platform. For rivals and partners across the gaming ecosystem, the console’s strong debut will shape development priorities and platform strategies in the months ahead.
Still, Nintendo’s upgraded forecast is conditional on the holiday season and its ability to keep supply lines healthy while holding consumer interest. If demand wanes or component constraints re-emerge, the company may need to temper expectations again.
As the holiday quarter unfolds, the industry will be watching sell-through numbers, upcoming game releases, and whether Nintendo can convert a blazing first few months into sustained momentum for the Switch 2.