Can you trust a government report that skipped a month of data collection? That’s the question economists and markets are asking after the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ long-delayed November consumer price index came in cooler than expected — 2.7% year-over-year for headline CPI and roughly 2.6% for core measures. On the surface it reads like a win for consumers and a green light for the Federal Reserve to ease policy next year. But the fine print is a mess.
The BLS couldn’t collect price information for October during the record-long government shutdown and only resumed in mid-November. That gap forced statisticians to rely on assumptions and “carry-forward” methods for missing categories — a fix that, in some cases, effectively treated price growth as if it had stopped.
Why economists are skeptical
Housing stands out. Shelter is the single biggest component of core CPI, and several top economists immediately flagged the report’s implied near-zero housing inflation in October as implausible. Diane Swonk of KPMG called the number “wacky,” noting the agency’s approach anchored the index in a way that will ripple through future months. Joseph Brusuelas and others called the report “noisy” and lacking the breadth of normal BLS releases.
There are other oddities that make practitioners wince: childcare costs dipped unexpectedly, gasoline moved in strange seasonally adjusted directions, and goods prices may have been biased lower because mid-to-late November sampling picked up more Black Friday discounts than a typical monthly snapshot would. Those quirks mean the headline cooling could be partly methodological rather than purely economic.
Markets reacted — cautiously
Bond investors liked the reading, pushing yields modestly lower and providing a tepid rally for mortgage-backed securities. But the move was measured: traders appear to be pricing in uncertainty rather than a definitive disinflation story. As one markets note put it, “the data itself was better for bonds than anyone could have hoped for,” yet skepticism capped the rally.
Stocks barely budged and futures didn’t meaningfully reprice aggressive Fed easing — a sign that traders and policymakers alike are treating the report as a partial signal at best.
What it means for policy and households
If the numbers were taken at face value, they would strengthen the case for earlier rate cuts and give the Fed room to loosen policy as labor-market cooling continues. But policymakers have already signaled they won’t overreact to a single, possibly flawed print. Fed officials watch a range of indicators, and with shelter data suspect and labor data recently the primary focus, the central bank is likely to move slowly.
For consumers, declining inflation rates are not the same as lower prices. Grocery bills, housing costs, insurance, and mortgage servicing remain burdensome. The CPI levels are still well above the pre-2025 norm in many categories, and households continue to feel affordability pressures even if the headline pace of increase moderates.
How long will the fog last?
Analysts warn the distortions could linger for months because the ad hoc methods used to fill gaps effectively anchor the series going forward. That makes upcoming releases harder to interpret; economists will be looking for corroborating signals from other high-frequency sources and private-sector trackers.
In the meantime, market participants are leaning on new data tools and alternative sources to get a clearer picture of price trends — everything from private-sector price trackers to enhanced market analytics. Google Finance’s recent upgrade with Gemini-driven tools, for example, gives traders another way to parse corporate and macro signals alongside official releases, and the diffusion of Gemini Deep Research into products like Gmail and Drive has made it easier for analysts to stitch together fragmented datasets and internal notes when public statistics falter (Google Finance’s new Gemini “Deep Search” tools, Gemini Deep Research in Gmail and Drive).
A final note: some category-specific pressures remain unmistakable. Food items such as beef and coffee have seen steep year-over-year gains, and exemptions or changes to tariff policy will take time to affect grocery shelves. Shelter and mortgage-related costs — even if the CPI’s shelter component looks oddly flat this month — still matter for everyday budgets.
This isn’t the end of the inflation story. It’s a detour through fog. Expect policymakers, investors and consumers to give this November print plenty of scrutiny — and to wait for multiple, cleaner readings before declaring a trend.