President Donald Trump’s hunt for a successor to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has taken a surprising turn: Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s chief of global fixed income, is suddenly being talked about as a frontrunner.
Trump’s own comments at Davos and in a CNBC interview — “I’d say we’re down to three, but we’re down to two. And I probably can tell you, we’re down to maybe one, in my mind” — fueled speculation. He called Rieder “very impressive,” and people familiar with the process say the finance executive left a favorable impression during his Oval Office meeting last week. That meeting, advisers say, included Vice‑President JD Vance, Chief of Staff Susie Wiles and Treasury aide Scott Bessent, who has been shepherding the search.
An outsider with Wall Street credentials
Rieder is the most clearly non‑traditional candidate among the final four names thought to be under consideration; the others are National Economic Council chief Kevin Hassett, former Fed governor Kevin Warsh and Fed governor Christopher Waller. Unlike those three, Rieder has no prior Fed or government policymaking resume. He’s spent decades in markets — long stints at Lehman Brothers, then founding R3 Capital Partners before joining BlackRock in 2009 — and runs one of the world’s largest fixed‑income operations.
That market pedigree cuts both ways. White House aides see an outsider as attractive: someone who can be competitive with Wall Street thinking and deliver the lower interest rates Trump wants. On TV and in interviews, Rieder has signaled exactly the sort of tilt market players and some administration officials find appealing: he’s spoken of concerns about the labor market and suggested modest reductions in the policy rate, estimating the Fed’s benchmark could fall toward roughly 3% from its 3.5–3.75% range.
He’s not entirely unknown to central banking circles. Rieder was on the New York Fed’s Investment Advisory Committee on Financial Markets from 2017 to 2024 and has served on other advisory panels. But he remains an outsider to the policy apparatus — a background that reassures some in the White House while worrying others who worry about politicizing the central bank.
What markets are pricing — and why investors care
For months bond traders have priced in a dovish successor, pushing short‑term yields lower relative to longer maturities: a so‑called curve steepener that reflects expectations for quicker rate cuts. Bloomberg analysts warn that an imminent announcement will be a stress test for traders who have already bet that the next chair will press for lower rates. If the new chair undermines the Fed’s independence or simply signals a faster pace of easing, markets could offset some of the economic lift by pricing higher inflation expectations and longer‑term borrowing costs.
Still, most strategists caution against overreacting to a single hire. Monetary policy is determined by a dozen voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee, not the chair alone. And there’s another technical check on the White House’s ability to reshape policy: Powell could remain at the Fed as a governor even after losing the chairmanship, preserving a moderating voice on the FOMC.
The political tightrope
The selection process is being watched not only for its economic consequences but as a test of institutional norms. Kevin Hassett, who at times was seen as the front‑runner and who remains influential inside the administration, recently said the next Fed chair should be “an independent person” who respects the Fed’s mandates — a pointed reminder of the balance the next nominee must strike between loyalty to the president’s growth agenda and credibility with markets and lawmakers.
That balancing act is acute in an environment where Trump has publicly criticized Powell and has pushed hard for lower rates. Any nominee who appears overtly political risks alarm on Capitol Hill and in financial markets; anyone perceived as insufficiently dovish risks running afoul of the president.
What to watch in the coming days
The White House has kept a tight lid on details until the president makes his decision. Market participants will be parsing not just the name but the nominee’s statements, speeches and personnel choices inside the Fed for clues about how monetary policy might shift.
If Trump does pick a market‑savvy outsider like Rieder, it will be a signal that the administration prizes immediate, market‑facing credibility over traditional Fed experience. That could reset expectations for rate cuts — and for how political influence and central‑bank independence coexist in this next chapter of U.S. monetary policy.