SpaceX now projects the first crewed Starship lunar landing could come no earlier than September 2028, according to a leaked internal schedule that highlights slippage in the company’s plan to deliver NASA astronauts to the Moon.

Key facts up front

  • A leak of an internal SpaceX document reported by Politico lays out milestones that put an orbital refueling demonstration in June 2026, an uncrewed lunar landing in June 2027, and — if those tests succeed — the earliest possible crewed lunar landing in September 2028.
  • NASA has a mid‑2027 target for Artemis 3; in October the agency reopened the Human Landing System (HLS) competition and asked contractors for faster, simpler proposals.
  • SpaceX has responded publicly with a promise to assess a “simplified” Starship lander architecture and will reportedly present an updated integrated master schedule to NASA in December.

    • What the leaked timeline says and why it matters

    The document—circulated to reporters and reviewed by multiple outlets—shows SpaceX pacing critical qualification steps well past NASA’s original Artemis 3 target. The schedule centers on two technical hurdles: demonstration of orbital cryogenic propellant transfer between Starship vehicles, and an uncrewed lunar landing of the Starship HLS (Human Landing System).

    Orbital propellant transfer is especially pivotal. SpaceX’s current architecture requires multiple in‑space refuelings to top off a lunar lander before it departs for the Moon; the company’s own estimates of how many tanker flights are needed vary widely across reporting, typically from roughly a dozen to several dozen. If refueling demonstrations slip, the downstream landing dates will slip with them.

    SpaceX’s internal dates are not yet formal contract changes. The company plans to deliver an updated integrated master schedule to NASA in December and negotiate any revised contract milestones.

    Behind the delay: Starship development challenges

    Starship is a generational engineering effort: a fully reusable, super‑heavy launch vehicle and a large spacecraft intended to carry cargo and crew beyond low Earth orbit. Development has progressed rapidly but unevenly. The vehicle has shown both setbacks and breakthroughs in recent test campaigns; some flights this year failed to recover key stages while other launches have demonstrated crucial capabilities such as booster reflights and soft ocean touch‑downs of the upper stage.

    SpaceX is also working toward a next‑generation Starship variant (often referred to publicly as V2 or Block 2), which the company plans to debut in 2026. That larger vehicle will form the basis of the HLS, but it adds complexity and a fresh learning curve.

    A congressional aide described the 2028 objectives as “very aggressive” given the program’s current state.

    SpaceX’s response: simplification and new design ideas

    Under pressure from NASA and Congress, SpaceX has said it is studying a simplified Starship lander concept that reduces complexity and prioritizes crew safety and speed to the surface. Public descriptions of the redesign indicate:

  • Removal of nonessential mass (for example, cutting airfoils and some heat‑shield elements) to lower weight
  • A shift toward fewer in‑space refueling flights—SpaceX materials and reporting have suggested new estimates that could bring required tanker launches below ten for an Artemis mission
  • Design changes favoring crew ingress/egress (two larger airlocks and a hoist system to lower astronauts) and operational simplifications (expendable refueling tanks in some scenarios)

    • In a statement accompanying its characterization of the simplified approach, SpaceX said Starship remains the fastest path to returning humans to the lunar surface and that the company is working to align its architecture with national priorities. (For company information see SpaceX.)

    Competitors and alternate approaches

    NASA reopened the HLS competition in October, asking both SpaceX and Blue Origin for alternative, more nimble proposals. That reopening means NASA could add a second lunar lander provider for Artemis 3 if the agency judges it necessary to meet schedule or safety goals.

    Blue Origin is developing a separate crewed lander, Blue Moon Mark 2 (MK2), already contracted for a later Artemis mission. Blue Origin has publicly signaled plans for an uncrewed demonstration in the near term and is flying its heavy launcher, New Glenn, which industry reporting says had a successful recent test flight.

    Independent analysts and industry insiders have floated other ways to shorten timelines or reduce risk, including:

  • Using expendable (non‑recovered) tanker Starships to increase delivered propellant per launch at the cost of higher expendable launch expense and reduced reuse benefits
  • Architectures that use Crew Dragon or other existing crew vehicles to ferry astronauts to a waiting lunar Starship in Earth orbit, potentially reducing the number of refuelings required before a crewed departure

    • These alternatives trade off cost, the core Starship goal of full rapid reuse, and NASA safety preferences. Some options—such as refueling with crew on board—would face strong scrutiny from NASA’s safety community.

    What this means for Artemis and NASA

    A slip of Artemis 3 to 2028 would slow the cadence of the Artemis program; Artemis 2 (a crewed lunar flyby without landing) could still fly earlier, with schedules pointing at 2026, but the overall tempo between Artemis missions would stretch beyond implied program expectations.

    NASA officials have said they will evaluate proposals from all bidders and assemble a subject‑matter panel to recommend a path forward. Agency press officers have confirmed receipt of alternative acceleration plans from contractors and said the government will use a Request for Information to gather wider industry input.

    Robert Pearce, a former NASA official and safety program expert, cautions that schedule pressure must be balanced against crew safety. “Fueling is a very dynamic operation,” he has said in past interviews on similar topics—an argument echoed by longtime NASA safety staff who resisted risky prelaunch fueling procedures in prior commercial crew discussions.

    Looking ahead: milestones to watch

  • December: SpaceX to deliver an updated integrated master schedule to NASA and begin negotiating revised contract milestones.
  • June 2026: SpaceX aims to demonstrate orbital cryogenic propellant transfer between Starships, a technical gate for the lunar architecture.
  • June 2027: The company’s internal timeline targets an uncrewed lunar landing demonstration.
  • September 2028: Earliest internal estimate for a crewed lunar landing if prior milestones succeed.

NASA will also complete its RFI and any formal procurement steps following the reopened competition. Political pressures in Congress, cost considerations, and programmatic risk assessments will all shape whether NASA accepts a revised SpaceX schedule or selects alternate providers.

Bottom line

The leak of SpaceX’s internal schedule crystallizes what many in the space community have already feared: Starship’s path from rapid test flights to routine, crewed lunar missions is still uncertain and may require more time than NASA’s original Artemis 3 milestone allowed. SpaceX is pursuing a simplified lander architecture and pressing forward with critical demonstrations, while NASA weighs alternatives—most notably Blue Origin’s lander work—to keep the Artemis timetable realistic and safe.

Both technical demonstrations and procurement decisions over the next year will determine whether the agency can hold to a mid‑decade return to the Moon or must accept a later first crewed Starship landing.

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