A year that looked volatile in spots closed with a calm note for wholesale used vehicles. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) ended December 2025 at 205.5 — roughly flat versus a year earlier and only slightly higher month-to-month — and Cox Automotive says the market should see a historically normal year in 2026, with prices rising about 2%.
That forecast is notable because 2% is hardly dramatic; it’s close to long-run norms. After the pandemic-era swings in used-vehicle pricing, dealers and shoppers are both trading a little more predictability for lower margins.
What the numbers say
Manheim’s headline: a +0.4% year-over-year move for December 2025 (non-seasonally adjusted), and a modest 0.1% month-over-month uptick. Cox Automotive’s commentary points to steady retail demand — retail used-vehicle sales were estimated to be roughly 2% higher in 2025 than in 2024 — supporting wholesale floors even as consumers grew more cautious late in the year.
Some of the index detail shows normal seasonal patterns returning. The three-year-old cohort, a closely watched band for depreciation trends, recorded slightly larger-than-typical declines in December as depreciation “caught up” to long-term averages.
Mixed signals by vehicle type
Beneath the headline stability, segments tell different stories. Several wholesale reports showed the overall market inching up in December, with luxury models holding better than others. But data from Carfax and analysis summarized by outlets including Investopedia flagged a meaningful reset in hybrids and electric vehicles (EVs): prices for those clean-vehicle categories fell more than most in December 2025.
Why the split? Timing and metrics matter. Some auction-based wholesale measures can show short-term pockets of strength for specific EV models, while broader retail and used-market trackers — and dealers who suddenly find themselves with more EV inventory — signaled weaker pricing power. In plain terms: a few high-demand EVs can still fetch strong wholesale bids, but the broader pool of used EVs and hybrids became more negotiable late in the year.
Policy played a role. Clean-vehicle tax incentives that helped buoy new- and used-EV demand through 2025 expired at the end of September, removing a key buyer prompt and leaving salons and lots with a bit more supply and fewer incentive-driven shoppers. That change reduced urgency among buyers and gave dealers less leverage when December rolled around.
At the same time, some mainstream segments cooled: compact cars and a number of pickups showed price softness heading into year-end. If you follow truck culture or aftermarket buzz, the pickup market’s churn makes sense — enthusiasts flock to performance upgrades and special editions — an echo of that appears in coverage of products like Ford’s SEMA Maverick kit, which reflects the genre’s constant churn between demand for utility and desire for novelty (Ford’s Maverick performance kit).
What this means for buyers and sellers
For consumers, the short takeaway is simple: bargaining room is growing in certain corners of the market. If you’re shopping for a used hybrid or EV, late-2025 signs suggest stronger negotiating power than in recent years. For dealers, inventory management and sharper pricing discipline will matter more as incentives fade and more clean vehicles hit lots.
Beyond pure pricing, the used-car landscape is increasingly shaped by technology and services that influence ownership and charging behavior. Smarter in-car navigation and energy-aware routing are pushing EV ownership into a more mainstream user experience — a trend connected to the broader tech upgrades drivers expect today (conversational navigation features).
The road ahead
Cox Automotive’s outlook for a roughly 2% increase in wholesale values for 2026 is a gentle vote of confidence: not runaway gains, but a return to seasonal and historical norms after a few turbulent years. That projection assumes demand holds up, inventories normalize, and macro pressures don’t escalate.
If anything could still tilt the picture, watch two things: how quickly used EV supply grows (and whether some models continue to command premiums), and whether broader consumer affordability — borrowing costs, gasoline prices, and household budgets — shifts buying patterns. For now, the market has moved from headlines about dramatic swings to a quieter phase where small shifts in supply, incentives and consumer sentiment will determine winners and losers.
The Manheim team and Cox Automotive economists have made their slide deck and call replay available for those who want deeper detail, and the next quarterly update is scheduled for April 7, 2026. For shoppers, that timetable gives a bit of runway to watch inventory and price trends before spring buying season ramps up.